USD/INR: Indian Rupee is expected to start depreciating slowly in July – Mizuho

In July, the USD/INR pair is forecast not to fall further, leading the Indian Rupee to depreciate slowly, economists at Mizuho Bank report.

EM currencies expected to start appreciating against the USD in the medium-to-long term

In July, USD/INR is expected to stabilize slowly, not falling much further, based on the foreign exchange market intervention by the central bank of India when the pair falls below the 82 level, as well as on occasional Indian Rupee-selling based on actual demand. 

In the medium-to-long term, the currencies of emerging countries, including the INR, are expected to start appreciating against the USD, as the Fed is soon likely to end policy interest rate hikes to start policy interest rate cuts, which is likely to be next year or beyond. However, the RBI continues to intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to keep USD/INR from falling rapidly, and the Rupee is expected to depreciate slowly without seeing a significant shift in the market trend.