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22 Sep 2014
USD positioning largely unchanged in the lead-up to FOMC - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - ANZ reviews the latest changes in the positioning data for the week ending 16 September 2014, noting that USD positioning was largely unchanged in the lead-up to the September 17 FOMC meeting.
Key Quotes
"USD positioning was largely unchanged in the lead-up to the September 17 FOMC meeting. This largely mirrored the muted moves in the DXY over that period. The rally in the DXY post the FOMC announcement suggests that leveraged funds has since added to their USD20.6bn net long USD position."
"While the change in overall USD positioning was minimal, this masks some large offsetting positioning adjustments during the week."
"EUR and JPY saw the largest gain in net positioning at USD2.6bn and USD1.3bn respectively. This is the second consecutive week of gains in EUR positioning since the September 4 ECB meeting. However, leveraged funds still hold an overall net short position of USD16.9bn against the single currency, though the paring back of some of these shorts no doubt helped EUR/USD recover somewhat during the week."
"The reduction in net short JPY positions came despite the yen weakening throughout the week, and is likely a sign that leveraged funds took the opportunity to take profits. If so, this suggests there is still potential upside in USD/JPY should we see leveraged funds deciding to rebuild their net short positions in JPY."
"Net long positions in GBP were reduced by USD1.7bn ahead of the September 18 Scottish referendum. With the “No” vote prevailing, focus should return to economic fundamentals and the prospect of rate hikes by the Bank of England, which should see a rebuilding of net long GBP positioning."
"Net long positioning in the AUD and NZD declined by USD1.4bn and USD0.3bn respectively. The reduction in NZD positioning is the ninth consecutive weekly decline, with last week’s reflecting position adjustment prior to the September 20 general election. Between the antipodean currencies, there is more potential downside from a positioning purge in AUD."
Key Quotes
"USD positioning was largely unchanged in the lead-up to the September 17 FOMC meeting. This largely mirrored the muted moves in the DXY over that period. The rally in the DXY post the FOMC announcement suggests that leveraged funds has since added to their USD20.6bn net long USD position."
"While the change in overall USD positioning was minimal, this masks some large offsetting positioning adjustments during the week."
"EUR and JPY saw the largest gain in net positioning at USD2.6bn and USD1.3bn respectively. This is the second consecutive week of gains in EUR positioning since the September 4 ECB meeting. However, leveraged funds still hold an overall net short position of USD16.9bn against the single currency, though the paring back of some of these shorts no doubt helped EUR/USD recover somewhat during the week."
"The reduction in net short JPY positions came despite the yen weakening throughout the week, and is likely a sign that leveraged funds took the opportunity to take profits. If so, this suggests there is still potential upside in USD/JPY should we see leveraged funds deciding to rebuild their net short positions in JPY."
"Net long positions in GBP were reduced by USD1.7bn ahead of the September 18 Scottish referendum. With the “No” vote prevailing, focus should return to economic fundamentals and the prospect of rate hikes by the Bank of England, which should see a rebuilding of net long GBP positioning."
"Net long positioning in the AUD and NZD declined by USD1.4bn and USD0.3bn respectively. The reduction in NZD positioning is the ninth consecutive weekly decline, with last week’s reflecting position adjustment prior to the September 20 general election. Between the antipodean currencies, there is more potential downside from a positioning purge in AUD."