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12 Mar 2015
All eyes in Australia's employment figures - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - All eyes in Australia will be on the Feb labour force data at 00.30 GMT, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.
Key Quotes
"All eyes in Australia will be on the Feb labour force data at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Our forecast for employment change is close to the market median, a rebound of +17k v +15k after Jan's -12k. Our job index suggests a loss of momentum in early 2015; this would bring the annual pace of job growth down to 1.4% from 1.6%. The detail in the Jan numbers showed broad based weakness, with the fall in full time employment partially offset by rise in part time. The participation rate however held despite the weak employment print, and we are forecasting for it to remain stable in Feb at 64.8%. This would just leave the unemployment rate rounded to 6.4% in Feb, though many of the market forecasts are for 6.3%. It would probably take a 6.5% or 6.2% reading to have a sizeable impact on AUD, with the larger response (fall) on 6.5%."
"In Asia, the Bank of Korea is expected to leave policy unchanged, the probability that rates remain at 2.0% increasing. Indian Jan IP and Feb consumer prices will also be released."
"Europe Jan industrial production should be supported by the weaker euro. The market median for US Feb retail sales is a recovery of 0.3% m/m after a -0.8% print in Jan. The sharp fall in oil prices had had a notable effect on total sales, bringing the modest acceleration in growth to 5.7%y/y ex auto and gas to 3.3% headline in Jan. The Feb forecast for retail sales ex auto and gas is to tick up to 0.3% m/m. The weather remains a risk to the result. Initial jobless claims will also be released."
Key Quotes
"All eyes in Australia will be on the Feb labour force data at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Our forecast for employment change is close to the market median, a rebound of +17k v +15k after Jan's -12k. Our job index suggests a loss of momentum in early 2015; this would bring the annual pace of job growth down to 1.4% from 1.6%. The detail in the Jan numbers showed broad based weakness, with the fall in full time employment partially offset by rise in part time. The participation rate however held despite the weak employment print, and we are forecasting for it to remain stable in Feb at 64.8%. This would just leave the unemployment rate rounded to 6.4% in Feb, though many of the market forecasts are for 6.3%. It would probably take a 6.5% or 6.2% reading to have a sizeable impact on AUD, with the larger response (fall) on 6.5%."
"In Asia, the Bank of Korea is expected to leave policy unchanged, the probability that rates remain at 2.0% increasing. Indian Jan IP and Feb consumer prices will also be released."
"Europe Jan industrial production should be supported by the weaker euro. The market median for US Feb retail sales is a recovery of 0.3% m/m after a -0.8% print in Jan. The sharp fall in oil prices had had a notable effect on total sales, bringing the modest acceleration in growth to 5.7%y/y ex auto and gas to 3.3% headline in Jan. The Feb forecast for retail sales ex auto and gas is to tick up to 0.3% m/m. The weather remains a risk to the result. Initial jobless claims will also be released."