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1 Oct 2013
Flash: EUR/USD, range breakout btw 1.3569/1.3600 and 1.3452 required - JPMorgan
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to JP Morgan FX Strategist Thomas Anthonj, a range breakout between 1.3569/1.3600 and 1.3452 in EUR/USD is required to receive fresh directions, adding the delayed tapering process has postponed EUR downtrend.
Key Quotes
"The Fed’s decision to delay the tapering process triggered another USD selling wave last week which led to an overshooting of the c/B-wave target at 1.3483/1.3521 (76.4 %/pivot) in EUR/USD."
"It will most likely take a break above 1.3569/1.3600 though to either put the odds in favor of an extension to 1.3923 (monthly Ichimoku-lagging), to 1.4041 (monthly trend) and to 1.4259 (76.4 %) or a break vbelow 1.3452 (pivot) to confirm a B.-2nd-wave top in place (red/green). The latter would imply that we are due for a broader C-wave down to 1.2604 (C = A) if not for an internal 3rd wave decline to 1.2008 (wave 1 x 1.618)."
"Only a decisive break below the latter (i.e. below the 200 DMA at 1.3172) and ultimately below the last low at 1.3104 would bring the EUR bears on the safe side, looking for a test of 1.2947 (int. 76.4 %) and of 1.2785 (weekly neckline) next."
Key Quotes
"The Fed’s decision to delay the tapering process triggered another USD selling wave last week which led to an overshooting of the c/B-wave target at 1.3483/1.3521 (76.4 %/pivot) in EUR/USD."
"It will most likely take a break above 1.3569/1.3600 though to either put the odds in favor of an extension to 1.3923 (monthly Ichimoku-lagging), to 1.4041 (monthly trend) and to 1.4259 (76.4 %) or a break vbelow 1.3452 (pivot) to confirm a B.-2nd-wave top in place (red/green). The latter would imply that we are due for a broader C-wave down to 1.2604 (C = A) if not for an internal 3rd wave decline to 1.2008 (wave 1 x 1.618)."
"Only a decisive break below the latter (i.e. below the 200 DMA at 1.3172) and ultimately below the last low at 1.3104 would bring the EUR bears on the safe side, looking for a test of 1.2947 (int. 76.4 %) and of 1.2785 (weekly neckline) next."