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2 Oct 2013
Flash: AUD/USD on data – TD Securities
FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at TD Securities offer a snap shot on data forces for the AUD.
Key Quotes:
“The Aug trade balance was -$A815m, a narrowing from the upgraded July print (from -$A765m to -$A1.375b). Mkt was for -$A400m hence was initially ‘sticker shock’ AUD negative. The revisions are squarely on the ABS measuring on-line retail sales, and of course these are imported goods, hence created a fresh “level” downward adjustment to the trade balance”.
“Monthly imported goods have been upwardly adjusted by $A500-800m per month, not big numbers but enough to create those substantial back revisions. The zig-zag pattern of building approvals continued with –4.7% in Aug after +10.2% in July (mkt -0.5%, TD -5%). This leaves Q3 flat after +6% in Q2. Apartment approvals continue to be the major source of volatility (-8.9% after +23.4% in July) although private house approvals fell -1.6%/mth, although are +10.3%/yr and maintain a rising trend”.
Key Quotes:
“The Aug trade balance was -$A815m, a narrowing from the upgraded July print (from -$A765m to -$A1.375b). Mkt was for -$A400m hence was initially ‘sticker shock’ AUD negative. The revisions are squarely on the ABS measuring on-line retail sales, and of course these are imported goods, hence created a fresh “level” downward adjustment to the trade balance”.
“Monthly imported goods have been upwardly adjusted by $A500-800m per month, not big numbers but enough to create those substantial back revisions. The zig-zag pattern of building approvals continued with –4.7% in Aug after +10.2% in July (mkt -0.5%, TD -5%). This leaves Q3 flat after +6% in Q2. Apartment approvals continue to be the major source of volatility (-8.9% after +23.4% in July) although private house approvals fell -1.6%/mth, although are +10.3%/yr and maintain a rising trend”.