UK: Government’s plan for Brexit - Natixis

Sylwia Hubar, Research Analyst at Natixis, notes that UK PM Theresa May confirmed that Britain will leave the single market given that EU’s four freedoms are inseparable.

Key Quotes

“As a non-member UK: 1/ will not be required to pay in to the EU budget (unless small amounts), 2/ will not be restricted by EU laws, 3/ will be free to strike deals with world’s economies and 4/ will be able to control immigration from the EU. The government is set to strive for a partial membership of the customs union and the parliament will have a vote on the final Brexit deal.” 

“May’s 12-point plan to exit the EU

1. provide as much certainty about the exit process as possible

2. take control of Britain’s laws and thus make Britain stronger

3. reinforce the Union between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (government will take papers from devolved governments into consideration in its Brexit strategy)

4. maintain the common travel area between Ireland and Northern Ireland

5. Britain’s exit must mean control of the immigration from Europe

6. rights for EU nationals living in Britain and British nationals living in the EU

7. protection of workers' rights

8. ambitious free trade agreement with European markets, not memebership

9. new trade deals with other countries

10. leading place for science and innovation

11. cooperation on issues like crime, terrorism and foreign affairs

12. smooth and orderly Brexit process”

“In her speech, Theresa May stressed that Britain is set to become more global in the period ahead, which will be possible owing to only a partial membership of the customs union with the EU (as opposed to the full membership of the EU). As a non-member UK: 1/ will not be required to pay in to the EU budget (unless small amounts), 2/ will not be restricted by EU laws, 3/ will be free to strike deals with world’s economies, 4/ will be able to control immigration from the EU.”

“The government is unlikely to deliver a running commentary on Brexit and although Theresa May agreed to a “flexible” Brexit transitional deal, with varying aspects taking different amounts of time, she also opposed infinite transition period, saying that government will push for an early agreement. On the positive side, Theresa May promised that the UK parliament will get a vote on the final Brexit deal, which rises anticipations that the deal will be debated and the best option will be chosen.”