US unemployment rate outlook - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered their outlook for this week's US Unemployment Rate.

Key Quotes:

"We expect the unemployment rate (UR) to remain unchanged at 4.7% in March. Payroll gains above the level required to keep pace with growing working age population will most-likely be offset by reentrants in the labor market. 

The labor force participation rate (LFPR) has stabilized somewhat after a prolonged decline through the recovery from the Great Recession, likely due to an aging population.

The recent stabilization can be attributed primarily to two factors: the recent uptick in LFPR for working age with less than a college degree, and the steady increase in participation for workers between the ages of 55-64 (Figures 4 and 5). While these signs point to some recovery, the uptick in LFPR for workers with less than a college degree pales in comparison to the stark decline that group experienced since the late-1990s."