Australia: Expect a moderate 0.5% q-o-q rise in Q2 CPI inflation - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura are forecasting a moderate 0.5% q-o-q rise in Australia’s headline CPI inflation in Q2, based on mixed partial data so far.

Key Quotes

“AUD fell a little in Q2 but is still higher than a year ago, which suggests little in the way of imported price pressures. Automotive fuel prices look to have fallen by around 2.5% q-o-q in Q2, based on industry data, while Q2 inflation data for New Zealand – which tend to correlate with Australia’s – also show little inflation pressure in aggregate. Against this, private sector survey data show a modest pick-up in capacity utilisation and cost measures.”