US: CPI headline to come in at 0.2% m/m – Danske Bank

In the US, CPI inflation for August will attract more attention than usual given that they will give the Fed its last impression of underlying price pressure before the FOMC meeting on 19-20 September, according to analysts at Danske Bank.

Key Quotes

“Out of the past five months, CPI headline has fallen in three and the weak numbers seem to be very broad based. In August, we estimate energy contributed around 0.1pp to the headline figure on top of our expectation of an increase in core CPI of 0.1% m/m. Thus, we estimate CPI headline to come in at 0.2% m/m (1.7% y/y, unchanged from July) and CPI core at 0.1% m/m (1.5% y/y vs 1.7% in July). Note that the fall in CPI core y/y is driven by an increase of 0.3% m/m in August last year, which falls out of the yearly increase in August this year.”