US Dollar looks for direction below 92.00

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is trading without clear direction following the Asian session, always below the 92.00 handle ahead of the European open.

US Dollar attention to Fed, data

The index is consolidating recent losses, particularly following Friday’s disappointing results from US retail sales, although the 91.60/50 band appears to hold the selling pressure quite well for the time being.

USD is expected to trade in a consolidative-mode ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision, where a move on rates is practically ruled out by the FX community. Reinforcing this view, CME Group’s FedWatch tool sees the probability of unchanged rates at almost 99%, based on Fed Funds futures prices.

In addition, the speculative community trimmed its USD speculative net shorts to 3-week lows in the week to September 12, as per the latest CFTC report.

Data wise today, the NAHB index is next on tap seconded by TIC flows.

US Dollar relevant levels

As of writing the index is retreating 0.05% at 91.61 and a breakdown of 91.58 (low Sep.15) would open the door to 91.01 (2017 low Sep.8) and finally 89.65 (low Dec.25 2015). On the upside, the initial hurdle aligns at 91.97 (10-day sma) followed by 92.43 (21-day sma) and then 92.66 (high Sep.14).