US: Focus on durable goods order and advance goods trade report – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for US durable goods order to rise by 3.2% on the strength of non-defense aircraft orders, aided by a more moderate 0.7% advance in ex-transport orders (market: 3.0% and 0.5%, respectively), while front-loading of tariff related activity represents an upside risk.

Key Quotes

“The advance goods trade report for June will be released alongside durables and the market expects the deficit to widen to $66.9bn from $64.8bn in May; this report will be scrutinized for any impact from steel/aluminum tariffs but we will not get a granular snapshot of imports until the full report is released in early August.”

“Initial jobless claims round out the calendar and consensus looks for a rebound to 215k.”