Key bond market recession signal seen postponed to next year - Reuters poll

According to the latest Reuters poll of bond strategists, “nearly 60 percent of respondents to a separate question also expected the US economy to enter a recession within the next two years, not very different from the previous poll.”

Additional Findings:

“Only about one-fifth of those answering an additional question expected the gap between U.S. 2-year and 10-year note yields to invert within the next six months, compared to over one-third in the previous poll.

But although 40 percent of analysts who answered the inversion question predict it in a year, the overall forecast is still of a steeper curve, not a flatter one: median forecasts show the gap between 2-year and 10-year note yields about 7 basis points wider to 25 basis points from about 18 now.”