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25 Jul 2014
The day ahead’s activity comes from overseas – Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted that the action, in terms of the calendar, ahead for the markets will come outside of the Asia session now.
Key Quotes:
“Today we have the German IFO survey, where the business climate is expected to dip slightly to 109.4, as should the current assessment and expectations components. The Markit PMI suggests upside surprise potential, however, as does the recent German World Cup victory, which just might have prompted some atypical consumer exuberance (and if so the Eurozone periphery will – footballing pride aside – be wishing Germany could win the World Cup every month)”.
“Following that we see UK Q2 GDP, expected at 0.8% QoQ for a second successive quarter, and the fifth quarter in a row where growth is in a brisk 0.7-0.8% range: but can we truly say the UK has sustainably recovered until wages start to increase faster than inflation? The BOE is skeptical, rightly so in all probability, though yet another strong growth number while the Bank is pleading its “slowly, S*L*O*W*L*Y” approach to rate hikes is still appropriate might make uncomfortable reading for it; and what if low wage growth is structural, as we suspect it now is? Where then for rates?”.
“The US has durable goods orders, always a layered release, but for once the headline number is seen up 0.5% MoM and so are most of the key core measures. Those data should give us a further picture of US Q2 GDP, which so far is looking liking it is not going to register the kind of bounce-back that one would hope to see following a -2.9% QoQ annualized print in Q1. Happy Friday!”.
Key Quotes:
“Today we have the German IFO survey, where the business climate is expected to dip slightly to 109.4, as should the current assessment and expectations components. The Markit PMI suggests upside surprise potential, however, as does the recent German World Cup victory, which just might have prompted some atypical consumer exuberance (and if so the Eurozone periphery will – footballing pride aside – be wishing Germany could win the World Cup every month)”.
“Following that we see UK Q2 GDP, expected at 0.8% QoQ for a second successive quarter, and the fifth quarter in a row where growth is in a brisk 0.7-0.8% range: but can we truly say the UK has sustainably recovered until wages start to increase faster than inflation? The BOE is skeptical, rightly so in all probability, though yet another strong growth number while the Bank is pleading its “slowly, S*L*O*W*L*Y” approach to rate hikes is still appropriate might make uncomfortable reading for it; and what if low wage growth is structural, as we suspect it now is? Where then for rates?”.
“The US has durable goods orders, always a layered release, but for once the headline number is seen up 0.5% MoM and so are most of the key core measures. Those data should give us a further picture of US Q2 GDP, which so far is looking liking it is not going to register the kind of bounce-back that one would hope to see following a -2.9% QoQ annualized print in Q1. Happy Friday!”.